CCWC assumes the field reflected in the two recent polls is incomplete. However, if the field does not change, we see the primary playing out in this fashion. Evaluating the recent polls and how the race would play out, it is best to use the 2006 Primary data, which was competitive and resembles the current demographics.
The margin of victory for Angelides (120,911) came from the urban areas of the state – San Francisco,Los Angeles, Oakland, Berkeley, Sacramento and San Diego. With likely 3-4 competitive candidates that each start with double digit support, the winner of the primary in 2008 could win with 38% of the vote or 952,350 which is less than Steve Westly received in 2006 in a losing effort.
Newsome will perform better than Angelides in San Francisco.
Villagarosa will perform better than Angelides in Los Angeles.
Brown will cut into the urban margins in both Los Angeles and San Francisco and will perform better in Oakland and Berkeley than Angelides.
Someone who can run strong third in urban areas and can perform at or above Westly levels in rural and less populated areas. Current candidates Garamendi and Westly will compete for this position.
This scenario follows traditional democratic party trends in California and does not apply the “Obama” effect. CCWC sees this as an opportunity for a grass roots internet driven outsider campaign with a reform/change centric platform.
CCWC is encouraged by the poll and wisdom of the undecideds.